Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is estimated to reach an impressive $450 billion by the fourth quarter of 2025, provided the nation’s economy sustains its recovery trajectory from recent economic reforms without significant disruptions. This optimistic projection was announced by Dr. Muda Yusuf, the Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE).

Dr. Yusuf revealed this forecast in a statement released on Sunday, August 3, 2025, which analyzed Nigeria’s recently rebased GDP figures and the performance in the first quarter of 2025. According to the newly rebased data (with 2019 as the base year), Nigeria’s nominal GDP stood at ₦372.82 trillion in 2024. In the first quarter of 2025, the economy grew by 3.13 percent, yielding a total output of ₦94 trillion, which brings Nigeria’s cumulative GDP at the end of Q1 2025 to approximately ₦466 trillion, or an estimated $300 billion. The projected increase to $450 billion by year-end signifies a substantial anticipated growth in the coming quarters.

The CPPE noted that the ongoing recovery is bolstered by a six-month high in business confidence, with the real sector spearheading economic revitalization. Dr. Yusuf highlighted several sectors that demonstrated robust growth in Q1 2025, including financial services (15.3%), oil refining (11.51%), transportation (14.08%), information and communication technology (7.4%), and metal ores (25%). He urged continued support for these high-performing sectors, recognizing their potential as “engines of growth, revenue generation, and job creation.”

While acknowledging the dominance of the non-oil sector, which contributed 96.03 percent to the GDP, Dr. Yusuf also pointed to critical areas requiring urgent intervention. He noted that key sectors vital for economic inclusion and diversification, such as agriculture (which grew by only 0.7%) and manufacturing (1.7%), performed “below expectations” in Q1 2025 and require targeted policy support to unlock their full potential.

Furthermore, the CPPE’s analysis revealed that nine sectors contracted in Q1 2025, with three – Air Transport, Textiles, and Coal Mining – currently in recession due to consistent negative growth. Dr. Yusuf emphasized the need for “special attention” to these struggling sectors.

Despite the positive outlook, the economist cautioned that significant challenges persist, including raw material shortages, unstable electricity supply, high import tariffs, escalating inflation, rising diesel costs, a depreciating naira, multiple taxation, poor access to credit, insecurity, and uncertain regulatory policies. Addressing these impediments is crucial for achieving sustainable and inclusive growth.

Dr. Yusuf also lauded the recent GDP re-basing exercise by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) as a “significant milestone” that enhances the accuracy and relevance of national economic data, aligning Nigeria’s statistical reporting with international best practices and providing a more realistic picture for policymakers and investors.