Trump Takes Two Major Gambles as US Enters Conflict with Iran

As the United States moves into a state of conflict with Iran, President Donald Trump is reportedly taking two significant gambles, betting on the efficacy of recent US strikes and a restrained Iranian response. These strategic risks underscore the high stakes involved in the escalating tensions in the Middle East.

Trump’s first major gamble, according to analysis, is his assertion that the US strikes on Iranian nuclear sites have “completely and totally obliterated” them. This optimistic assessment stands in contrast to the views of many military officials, who suggest that such air strikes are more likely to set back Iran’s nuclear program rather than achieve its complete destruction. The long-term effectiveness of the strikes and their impact on Iran’s nuclear ambitions remain a critical unknown.

The second gamble involves Trump’s hope that Iran will refrain from retaliating against US bases, diplomatic missions, or international shipping. Instead, he appears to be banking on Iranian moderates seeking dialogue rather than escalation. This strategy relies on the assumption that Iran’s response will be contained, preventing a broader regional conflagration.

The current situation draws parallels to Trump’s decision to order the assassination of Iranian military figure Qassem Soleimani in 2019. In that instance, while Iran did retaliate with missile strikes on US bases, the response did not lead to a sustained, full-scale counter-attack. Trump is reportedly hoping for a similar, limited outcome in the face of the present conflict, reflecting a belief that Iran can be deterred from further aggression.

These gambles highlight the unpredictable nature of the conflict and the complex calculations being made by key international players as tensions between the United States and Iran continue to intensify.